基于突变级数法的滑坡稳定性评价

Evaluation of landslide stability based on catastrophe progression method

基于突变级数法,建立了滑坡稳定性评价和预测模型。在相关研究的基础上,建立了滑坡稳定性评价指标的递阶层次结构,以滑带强度、滑面特征、滑坡外形特征及其近期活动等4个内部影响因素,以及暴雨作用、河流作用、滑坡后缘加载、人工活动和地震作用等5个外部影响因素,作为滑坡稳定性识别的判别因子;以22组典型滑坡工程案例作为训练样本,建立了滑坡稳定性评价模型和突变级数判据;然后利用6组典型滑坡工程实际案例作为测试样本,检验了模型的可行性和可靠性。研究表明,突变级数法对滑坡稳定性的识别结果与实际情况吻合,并与系统加权聚类分析法、判别分析法等的识别结果一致。

A model for evaluation and prediction of landslide stability was established based on catastrophe progression method. According to the previous relative researches,the multi-level index system of landslide stability assessment was constructed,and four main internal factors including slide strength,slide feature,slide shape feature,latest activities of slide,and five main extrinsic factors including heavy rain effect,fluvial process,former overload,human activities,earthquake action,were selected as discriminating factors for the recognition of landslide stability; twenty-two actual samples of landslide were taken as the training samples,and the catastrophe progression model and the recognition criteria were established for evaluation of landslide stability; the additional six actual samples of landslide were employed as the testing samples,and were evaluated to verify the feasibility and reliability of the proposed model and recognition criterion. The study showes that the results of landslide stability evaluation recognized by the catastrophe progression method agree with the practical situation,and with that of hierarchical weighted clustering method and discriminant analysis method.