1640-1909年长江下游地区冬季冷暖特征研究

Research on cold-warm characteristics of winter in lower reaches of Yangtze River during 1640-1909

通过对历史文献资料的收集、整理,重建了1640-1909年长江下游地区冬季逐年冷暖的等级序列,并运用统计分析、滑动T检验及功率谱分析等方法,对得到的序列进行了多时间尺度特征的综合分析。结果表明:1640-1909年长江下游地区整体上处于偏冷时期,全区大致存在5个偏冷时段和5个偏暖时段,其中最冷时段出现在1710-1719年和1840-1849年间,最暖时段出现在1850-1859年;全区在10a尺度上冷暖变化跃变频繁,而在30a尺度上冷暖变化具有很高的稳定性;1640-1909年间,全区冷暖变化在36,45,72和123等年份上有明显的正相关,在4,68,94和104等年份上有明显的负相关,显著性变化周期有5个,分别是2a,3a,5a,11a和40a,其中40a为第1主周期。

In this paper,the winter temperatures grade sequence in lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1640- 1909 were reconstructed by using the collected historical data. We further conducted the comprehensive multiple time scale analysis of the temperature sequence by use of statistical analysis,sliding T-test,power spectral analysis and other methods. Results indicate that the years 1640- 1909 were a cold period as a whole for the lower Yangtze River. It can be broadly divided into five colder periods and five warm periods,in which the coldest periods appeared during 1710- 1719 and 1840- 1849,and the warmest periods appeared in 1850- 1859; the temperature of study regions changed frequently on 10a- scale but showed high stability on 30a- scale; during 1640- 1909,temperature change had a positive correlation on 36 a,45a,72 a and 123 a,while there was a negative correlation on 4a,68 a,94a and 104a; for study region there was five significant cycles,namely 2a,3a,5a,11 a and 40 a,in which 40 a was the first primary cycle.