中国区域降水过程综合强度评估方法研究及应用

Research and application of comprehensive intensity evaluation method for regional rainfall process in China

在现代化气象服务业务中,经常需要对某区域在一定时段内发生的降水过程综合强度大小进行定量评估或预估。为满足此类服务需求,利用1960-2009年1789个气象观测站的逐日降水资料,统计分析了中国区域降水的时空分布特征、暴雨孕灾环境的脆弱性及气象服务需求等,将中国分为4个暴雨灾害敏感区;基于降水影响对降水过程进行定义,并分析给出了降水强度、覆盖范围、降水持续时间3个降水过程综合强度的评估指标;通过提取分析对4个暴雨灾害敏感类区造成一定影响的历史降水过程,以3个评估指标指数划分为基础,建立了降水过程综合强度等级划分评估模型,界定特强、强、较强、中等4个强度降水过程的划分标准。最后,应用2010-2012年降水资料对该评估模型进行了应用检验。检验结果表明:运用该模型,可以对中国范围内任意区域降雨过程综合强度大小进行快速定量评估和预估,也可为历史降雨过程案例入库及演变特征研究提供科学依据,以提高气象业务中相关服务的时效性和科学支撑能力。

In modern meteorological service business,comprehensive intensity of the rainfall process is often needed to evaluate or estimate quantitatively in a certain area in a certain period of time. The daily rainfall data,including1789 meteoralogical obserration stations during the year of 1960-2009,were selected to analyze statistically temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of rainfall,the vulnerability of rainstorm-forming environments in China and meteorological service requirements. Four rainstorm disaster sensitive regions were divided in China,and scientific definition of rainfall process was given based on the rainfall influence,and also three evaluation indices including rainfall intensity,coverage area and duration of rainfall were puts forward. Through extracting and analyzing historical rainfall processes which made certain influence in the four rainstorm disaster sensitive regions,the evaluation model of the comprehensive intensity of such rainfall process was built based on the classification of three evaluative indices of rainfall process. Then the criteria for the classification of rainfall process were divided into four grades including extra-strong,strong,stronger and general. Finally,the 2010-2012 rainfall data was applied to inspect the applicability of the evaluation model. Inspection results show that any regional rainfall process compre-hensive intensity can be evaluated and estimated quantitatively and rapidly within the range of China using this model. The results can also be used for historical rainfall process case library,provide the scientific basis to the research of evolution characteristics and improve related services in the meteorological operations timeliness and scientific support ability.