海南岛天然橡胶产量灾损风险区划

Risk regionalization of rubber plant yield loss in Hainan Island

由于天然橡胶产量的波动与气象条件密切相关,因此在天然橡胶产量灾损的风险区划中要充分考虑气象灾害的影响。利用海南岛18个市县1988-2010年天然橡胶的实际产量资料,提取了海南岛天然橡胶产量减产序列,从产量灾损率角度出发,选择橡胶产量的平均减产率、减产率变异系数、减产率风险指数及气象灾害综合风险区域系数作为评价因子,开展了海南岛天然橡胶产量灾损的风险区划。结果表明:天然橡胶灾损的高风险区位于文昌、东方、昌江、三亚、陵水等区域;中风险区域位于定安、琼海、琼中、万宁、乐东等区域;低风险区位于海口、澄迈、儋州、屯昌、白沙、五指山、保亭等区域。

For the fluctuation of rubber plant yield are related closely to meteorological conditions,so risk regionalization of the rubber plant yield loss should fully consider the impact of meteorological disasters. Rubber yield reduction sequences were extracted from the actual output data of rubber plant in 18 counties of Hainan Island from1988 to 2010. The average rubber yield reduction rate,variation coefficient of yield reduction rate,risk index of yield reduction rate and comprehensive regional risk coefficient of meteorological disaster were chosen as the evaluation factors to conduct rubber yield loss risk regionalization. The results show that the high risk regions of rubber plant losses are mainly located in Wenchang,Dongfang,Changjiang,Sanya,Lingshui; middle risk areas are mainly located in Dingan,Qionghai,Qiongzhong,Wanning,Ledong etc.; low risk areas are located in Haikou,Chengmai,Danzhou,Tunchang,Baisha,Wuzhishan,Baoting and so on.