近期我国大型地质灾害预报与避险案例分析

Case analysis of forecast and evacuation of recent large geological disasters in China

分析了2010-2012年我国大型地质灾害的降水案例,揭示了降雨阈值的分布特征,指出经过平均年降雨量规格化的阈值效果更好,改进后的地质灾害客观模式与主观模式的差别越来越小;通过收集和分析地质灾害成功的避让案例,揭示了对当天发生了强降水的地质灾害预警会引起较多的避险措施,而只有前期降水的预警则不会引起足够的重视;客观模型3对地质灾害避险成功的意义最大。

This paper analyzes rainfall cases with large-scale geological disoster in China during 2010- 2012,reveals distribution characteristics of rainfall threshold and points out that the effect of threshold normalized with yearly average rainfall is better and the difference between improved objective mode of geological disasler and subjective one is getting smaller. Through collection and analysis of successive evacuation cases,it is revealed that the geological early warning based on heavy rainfall on this day may lead more evacuation measures but the early warning only based on earlier stage may not lead to enough attention. Objective Mode 3 has biggest meaning for geological disaster evacuation.