应用吸收结构法预测火山灰云漂移轨迹

Prediction of drift trajectory of volcanic ash cloud with attracting structure method

火山灰云能对航空运输安全产生直接危害,所以对火山灰云轨迹进行预测是非常必要的。吸收结构法和PUFF模型都能依据数值天气预报的数据预测火山灰云飘移轨迹。应用这两种方法的原理,采用美国1958年至1997年的精确大气轨迹参数数据,计算了风场的吸收结构,减化了计算过程,摆脱了对数值天气预报数据的依赖,实现了火山灰云漂移路径预测,并与吸收结构方法进行了比较。结果表明,应用风场计算的方法进行火山灰云追踪是可行的。

Volcanic ash clouds can pose a threat to air transport safety directly,so it is necessary to predict the trajectories of volcanic ash clouds. Depending on the data of numerical weather forecast,attracting structures method and PUFF model both can do it. By using the principle of the two methods,this paper applies the precise atmospheric trajectory parameter data of United States from 1958 to 1997 to calculate the attracting structures of wind field,simplifies calculation process and frees from dependance on numerical weather forecast data. It realizes the prediction of volcanic ash cloud drift path. And a comparison with attracting structures method was carried out. Results show that it is feasible to track the volcanic ash cloud with the calculation method of wind field.