近50年东北地区≥10℃农业热量资源对气候变化的响应

Response of agricultural thermal resources equal to and more than 10℃ to climate change over the past 50 years in northeast China

气候变暖背景下,系统研究我国东北地区农业热量资源对气候变化的响应仍具有重要的现实意义。根据1961-2010年东北地区64个气象台站的逐日资料,采用公认的农业气象指标,分析了80%保证率下东北地区稳定通过10℃农业热量资源的时空变化特征及演变趋势,探讨了近50a东北地区农业热量资源对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:从1960-2010年,东北地区农业热量资源存在年代际变化,且80年代到90年代是该地区农业热量资源增加最快的时期。以1980年为界线,≥10℃初日出现的日期先推迟再提前,终日出现的日期推迟,持续日数先减少后增加,积温呈持续增多趋势;近50a东北地区热量资源增加趋势明显。东北地区农业热量资源地域差异明显。热量资源较丰富的是辽宁省西部和南部,较匮乏的是黑龙江省的大兴安岭地区,且由南向北随纬度增大呈初日出现日期延迟、终日出现日期提前、持续日数减少、积温减少的变化规律。

Under climate warming,studying the response of agricultural thermal resources to climate change in northeast China still has important practical significance. Based on the daily meteorological data of 64 stations from1961 to 2010 in northeast China,as well as generally accepted indices of agricultural meteorology,the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and evolution trend of agricultural thermal resources passing stably the daily average temperature 10℃ with 80% guarantee rate were analyzed. The responses of agricultural thermal resources passing stably the daily average temperature 10℃ to climate change in northeast China over the past 50 years were further explored. The results showed that the agricultural thermal resources in northeast China displayed decadal changes.Further,the agricultural thermal resources were found to be the fastest increase in the period of 1980 s and 1990 s.With the year of 1980 as a boundary,the initial dates were postponed and then advanced from 1961 to 2010,and the final dates were postponed. However,the duration days were shorten and then prolonged. The accumulated temperature was continuously increased; the agricultural thermal resources in northeast China were significantly increased in rerent 50 years. The geographical differences of the agricultural thermal resources in northeast China were significant. Especially,the agricultural thermal resources were found rich in the western and southern Liaoning Province,and lack in the Daxing'anling region of Heilongjiang Province. Moreover,with latitude increase from thesouth to the north,the initial dates were postponed,and the final dates were advanced. The duration days and the accumulated temperatures also decreased.