江南地区茶树高温热害时空分布特征及风险区划

Spatiotemporal pattern and risk zoning of tea heat injury in south region of the Yangtze River

为研究江南茶区茶树高温热害的时空演变特征及其风险区划。利用江南地区87个气象观测站1957-2007年逐日气象资料,结合前人研究成果,提出了茶树高温热害致灾的气象指标;利用Matlab,Arc GIS9.3及小波分析法统计并分析了51a高温热害的时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律;根据灾害等级发生的频次及强度,构建了高温热害风险指数,并利用该指数对江南地区茶树进行了风险区划。结果表明:(1)江南地区茶树轻度、中度、重度、总热害分布差异显著,基本上呈现南高北低的态势。(2)分析期内,各级灾害年际变化幅度大,呈现出先减小后增加的趋势。(3)各等级灾害存在明显的多尺度特征。(4)茶树高温热害发生的高值区主要分布在浙江金华—龙泉—衢州一带、江西景德镇—樟树—宜春以南大部分地区。该研究结果可为我国南方茶树种植布局和气象灾害防御提供参考。

In order to study spatiotemporal pattern and risk zoning of tea heat injury in south region of the Yangtze River,based on daily meteorological of 87 meteorological stations in the region from 1957 to 2007 and combined with results of previous studies,we proposed meteorological indices of tea heat injury. Using Matlab,Arc GIS9. 3and wavelet analysis method,the spationtemporal pattern and multiple time scale variation of tea heat injury in recent 51 years were analyzed statistically. According to the frequency and intensity of occurring disasters grade,we built risk index of heat injury and conducted risk zoning by using the risk index. The results show that(1) light,middle,heavy and total tea heat injury distribution has significant difference in south region of the Yangtze Rive,the injury is south higher than that in north.(2) during the analyzed period,interannual variation amplitude is large for all leves of heat injury showing an increasing trend after decrease in early stage.(3) heat injury in different levels has obviously multi- scale characteristics;(4) the high- value area of tea heat injury is mainly distributed in the Jinghua- Longquan- Quzhou and their nightboring area of Zhejiang Province and in the south of Jingdezheng-Zhangshu- Yichun of Jiangxi Province. The research results can provide a reference for the layout and planting of tea and the prevention of meteorological disaster.