2000-2010年广东省流入人口时空差异特征及影响因素

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of inflow population in Guangdong from 2000 to 2010

广东省自改革开放以来一直是中国流入人口大省,2010年全国第六次人口普查数据显示,广东省省外流入人口达21497787人,占广东省总人口的20.61%,在全国省、自治区、直辖市中居第一位。本文以全国第五次、第六次人口普查数据为数据源,选取县级行政单位为分析单元,通过GIS空间分析方法,力图找出广东省流入人口的空间分布格局及时空变化特征,并结合社会经济统计数据和统计降维的技术手段,说明广东省流入人口规模与社会经济发展之间的响应关系,讨论广东省流入人口与当地产业政策调整之间的关系。研究表明:1流入人口数量增多,但分布格局总体稳定,流入人口的聚集度略有下降;2流入人口规模与经济发展关系密切,但分布格局与当地产业转移政策关系明显。

Since the economic reform and opening up, Guangdong Province has been one of the provinces in China that has the largest floating population inflow. Data from the sixth census show that Guangdong had21497787 inflow population from other provinces, which accounted for 20.61% of the total population in Guangdong in 2010. The number of inflow population in Guangdong ranked the first in all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China. Using data from the fifth and sixth national population census in 2000 and2010 and spatial autocorrelation method(global autocorrelation, local autocorrelation, and cold and hot spot analyses), we analyzed the spatial- temporal characteristics and influencing factors of inflow population in Guangdong Province during the first decade of the 21 st century. The results show that:(1) From 2000 to 2010, the number of inflow population in Guangdong increased sharply, but the distribution pattern of the inflow population was stable. The concentration of the inflow population slightly decreased from 2000 to 2010.(2) The number of inflow population in Guangdong Province was closely related to economic development, but the distribution pattern had a clear relationship with local industrial transfer policies.