矿产资源跨期优化配置研究与展望

The Research Status and Prospect of Inter- temporal Optimal Configuration Theoretical Model of Mineral Resources and Its Application

矿产资源是可耗竭资源,理论上讲其开采利用达不到可持续利用。这就意味着如果将其作为生产投入是必须的,那么生产和消费就不可能无限期维持下去。1970年代起理论界引发了一场旷日持久、迄今尚未停止的关于可耗竭资源最优利用及其相关问题的大讨论。本文较详细总结评述了著名经济学家(包括诺贝尔经济学奖获得者)关于矿产资源最优配置理论的经典模型及其精彩纷呈的观点,以及后续研究动态,包括储量不确定、后备技术不确定、市场结构不同、环境外部性、税收政策等因素对矿产资源跨期优化配置的影响,最后提出了中国矿产资源跨期优化配置研究特色与展望。

Mineral resources are exhaustible resources,which can not reach the effect of sustainable use theoretically. This means that if it is necessary to put them into production,the production and consumption can not be sustained indefinitely. The theoretical circle has sparked a protracted,non- stop discussion on how to optimize the use of exhaustible resources and some related issues since 1970's. This paper summarizes the classical model of optimal extraction theory of mineral resources in detail and different wonderful views of the famous economists( including many Nobel Prize- winning economist); analyzes the follow- up research status of optimal extraction theory model of mineral resources including the influences of uncertain reserves and backstop technology,different market structure,environmental externalities,the tax policy on the inter- temporal optimal configuration of mineral resources; and finally puts forward research characteristics and prospect of China's inter- temporal optimal configuration of mineral resources.