信贷约束、房价与经济增长

Credit Constraints, Housing Price and Economic Growth

本文采用面板门限模型,基于2005~2012年中国31个省份的数据,对中国房地产市场价格与经济增长之间是否存在门限效应以及对门限值进行估计与检验。研究结果表明:从信贷约束的角度看,房价上涨对经济增长的影响存在显著的单门限效应。在信贷约束偏松的区间,房价上涨对经济增长的促进作用明显比在信贷约束偏紧的区间大,呈现非线性的区制变化。研究进一步发现,总体上中国信贷市场的约束偏紧,导致房价上涨对经济增长的促进作用受到限制。因此,中国应通过进一步完善信贷市场等方式,合理弱化信贷约束,从而改善房价对经济增长影响的效率。

This paper uses the panel threshold model and the data of China's 31 provinces during 2005-2012 to test whether there is a threshold effect between the prices of real estate markets and the economic growth in China, and estimate the threshold value. The results of the paper show that, from the perspective of credit constraints, there is a significant single-thresholdeffect in the influence of housing price rising on economic growth. In the loose range of credit constraints, the promotion of housing price rising on economic growth is obviously greater than that in the tight range, and it shows a non-linear-regime change. The further research shows that the constraints in Chinese credit markets are tight on the whole, which results in the promotion of housing price rising on economic growth is limited. Therefore, Chinese credit markets need to be improved, so as to reduce credit constraints and improve the efficiency in the influence of housing price on economic growth.