城镇化对中国农业碳排放的影响——省际数据的实证研究

The Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Data

基于1997年~2011年中国29个省区的面板数据,综合采用户籍人口、就业人口和城区建设城镇化等三种指标,本文全面考察了城镇化对全国和东、中、西部地区农业碳排放的影响。研究发现,城镇化整体降低了中国农业碳排放;但不同渠道城镇化对农业碳排放的影响存在一定差异,就业城镇化是农业碳排放下降的最主要动力;城镇化对三大地区农业碳排放的影响也存在一定差异:城镇化对西部地区碳排放的积极影响最为显著,对中部地区则存在一定的负面影响,对东部地区的影响则很不确定。结论对中国城镇化与低碳经济的协调发展具有重要意义。

Based on the panel data from Chinese 29 provinces during 1997 ~ 2011,and using three urbanization indictors in census register population,employment population,urban construction,this paper has a comprehensive study about the impact of urbanization on agriculture carbon emission in the whole country,the eastern,central,western provinces. Results show that,urbanization reduces the overall level of China's agricultural carbon emissions. There are some differences in the influences of various urbanization channels,and the employment urbanization is most important driving force of agriculture carbon decline. However,there are also some differences in the impacts of urbanization on different areas' agriculture carbon emission. Urbanization has a significant positive impact on agriculture carbon emission in the western area,but in the central area,such impact is negative,the impact of urbanization in eastern area is uncertain. The results have important implications for the coordinated development of China's urbanization and low-carbon economy.