房产税改革实施效果的数据检验

The Effectiveness of House Property Tax Reform Policies

笔者以沪、渝两地为例,选取了土地购置面积等8类37个指标,运用TRAMO/SEATS的统计技术,实证检验了房产税改革的政策效果。结果表明,房产税改革对调节房地产市场的供需结构有一定的影响,上海在不同户型的供给比例、重庆在总量供给的节奏上有所响应,但房产税并没有对调整房价上涨产生有效的影响,说明房产税还需与相应措施一起使用,才能起到更好的政策效果。

Selecting Shanghai and Chongqing as two samples,this paper examines the performances of house property tax by employing 37 indexes such as the area of land acquisition in 8 categories and using TRAMO / SEATS empirical statistical techniques to identify the structural change point and make predictions. The results show that house property tax do have a influence on the supply and demand structure in real estate market,for example,the supply structure of dwelling size in Shanghai and the alteration of supply amount in Chongqing responded to the house property tax policy to some extent. While price index of housing did not respond significantly,which indicates that other reform measures are required to achieve better policy performance.