瓦斯涌出量预测的GM(1,1)模型改进

Improved GM(1,1) Model for Gas Emission Prediction

为了提高GM(1,1)模型预测矿井瓦斯涌出量的精度,分析了造成方程病态的原因,采用全最小一乘准则进行参数a和b的求解,解决了参数求解的稳健性问题。以玉河泰煤业1318采煤工作面为例,将改进的GM(1,1)模型用于矿井瓦斯涌出量预测,能够取得比传统GM(1,1)模型要高的预测精度,为矿井瓦斯治理提供依据。

In order to improve the GM(1,1) model prediction accuracy of coal mine gas emission,the causes of equation ill are analyzed,adopt the full minimum absolute criteria for solving the parameters a and b,solving the problem of the robustness. Take Shanxi jade and coal limited liability company 1318 coal mining face as an example,the improved GM(1,1) model for prediction of gas emission,can achieve more satisfactory prediction accuracy than the traditional GM(1,1) model,provide the basis for mine gas control.