川西北牧区水热条件与牧草产量的相关性

Correlation between grassland hydrothermal conditions and forage yield of pastoral area in Northwest Sichuan

本研究通过对川西北12个主要牧区县2006-2013年间降水、气温与牧草产量的相关性分析及多元回归分析,分析水热条件对天然草原牧草产量的影响及其定量关系。结果表明,除3-5月外,总体上各时期降水与牧草产量存在显著正相关性,相关性强弱顺序为:6-9月(ρ=0.192,P<0.05)>6-8月(ρ=0.187,P<0.1)>3-9月(ρ=0.171,P<0.1);牧草产量随3-5月气温升高有增加的趋势,降水影响不明显;6-9月降水量每增加1mm,牧草干草产量增加17.1kg·hm-2,3-5月月平均气温每增加1℃,干草产量增加585.1kg·hm-2。

In order to study the relationship between hydrothermal conditions and forage yield,correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis of precipitation,temperature and forage yield were conducted in12 major pastoral counties in northwestern Sichuan during the period 2006-2013.The results showed that the monthly dry forage yield was significantly positive correlated with the precipitation for each period except with the period of March-May.The positive correlation decreased in the following order:June-September(ρ=0.192,P<0.05),June-August(ρ=0.187,P<0.1),March-September(ρ=0.171,P<0.1).In March-May,temperatures significantly affected forage yield whereas precipitation did not significantly affect forage yield.The monthly dry forage yield increased 17.1kg·ha-1 if precipitation increased 1mm in June-September and increased 585.1kg·ha-1 if temperature increased 1 ℃in March-May.