能源地缘政治视角下中国与中亚—俄罗斯国际能源合作模式

Study on energy cooperation between China and the Central Asia and Russia under the view of energy geopolitics

中亚与俄罗斯油气资源丰富,是中国未来开展国际油气资源合作,实现油气进口多元化和能源运输安全的重要战略区域。从俄罗斯、美国、中国以及中亚自身的战略需求方面刻画中亚地区大国博弈的能源地缘政治格局及其演变,并对中国与俄罗斯、中亚各国的能源合作特征进行详细分析。研究发现:中国与中亚各国之间的能源合作进展顺利,并呈现出多元化的发展趋势,已从单纯的油气贸易向油气产业的上下游进行拓展,但是中国与俄罗斯的合作因地缘政治战略、价格因素等一波三折,乌克兰危机之后,双方合作出现新的战略机遇。针对在中亚能源合作可能遇到的大国地缘政治博弈、俄罗斯的政策不确定性、中亚各国的局部冲突以及可能存在的资源国有化和来自国际石油公司的剧烈竞争,提出未来中国可以采取贷款换资源合作模式、双向合作模式与中亚国家石油公司联合经营模式、探索上海合作组织框架内的油气资源供求一体化模式以及油气经贸一体化合作模式,以尽可能地降低能源合作风险。

At present, China is facing an increasingly severe international energy situation with the rapid economic growth and increasing urbanization level. Central Asia and Russia with rich oil and gas resources are important strategic areas of China to carry out future international energy cooperation to diversify import oil & gas and enhance energy transport safety. Especially,the cooperation of energy is the highlight of China's proposal of building Silk Road economic belt which arouses global attention, and the cooperation among China, the Central Asia and Russia may change the world oil and gas trade pattern. However, energy cooperation is not only an international economic and trade issue, but also a great policy strategy under the geopolitical situations. Firstly, the existing geopolitical order and its revolution in the Central Asia is drawn systematically in the paper, and the key countries, which are the United States, Russia and China, are also analyzed. Secondly, we have a detailed description on the cooperation process among China, the Central Asia and Russia. Also the characteristics and the trend of the cooperation are described. The cooperation between China and the Central Asia goes well and presents a trend of diversification from oil & gas trade to the upstream-downstream industries and even other fields, while the cooperation between China and Russia is full of complications because of the political strategy and price. After Ukrainian crisis, the cooperation tends to be approved. Thirdly, we pointed out the potential risks in the area, including the risk of geopolitical pattern and its change, uncertainty of the Russian policies, the inner conflicts of Central Asia countries, risk of resource nationalization, and the great competitions from international oil &gas company. Fourthly, based on the analysis above, the main cooperation modes are pointed out, which are loans for oil & gas mode, bilateral cooperation mode, joint ventures strategy mode with national company, the integration mode of energy supply and demand under the framework of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and oil & gas-trade mode, so as to reduce risk as much as possible.