2000年以来中国区域经济差异的时空演变

The economic disparities and their spatio-temporal evolution in China since 2000

基于经济区、省(直辖市、自治区)、地区(市、区、盟、自治州)三级空间单元,以2000-2012年人均GDP为指标,采用Theil指数二阶分解和ESDA空间统计方法,探索中国区域经济差异的时空演变。结果表明:1 2000年以后经济差异呈现"先小幅上升、后持续下降"的趋势,且省内差异>经济区间差异>省间差异;2相比北部沿海、东部沿海、长江中游、南部沿海等综合经济区,黄河中游、大西北、大西南、东北等综合经济区内的省间差异相对较大;3省内差异减小的省份呈现增多趋势;4地级单元经济差异以空间正关联为主,HH类型有扩大趋势,LL类型较为稳定,HL和LH类型则较少且分布零散。在此基础上,从国家政策、地理区位、资源禀赋、资产投资和行政分割等角度探讨了经济差异的原因。

Regional economic disparity has been a highly debated topic since the 1990 s. Many domestic and foreign scholars have completed various aspects of studies in this field. The analyses of the economic disparities and their spatio-temporal evolution are of great significance for the government to generate balanced and non-balanced development strategy of regional economy. This paper integrated the methods of two-stage nested Theil decomposition and ESDA.Based on the three-level hierarchical structure(economic zone-province-district), regional disparities were decomposed into three components: the between-region, between-province and within-province components. Also, the paper explored spatial autocorrelation at the district level using ESDA method. The results showed that,(1) the economic disparities increased slightly since 2000 and then decreased continuously after 2004. The degree of within-province disparity was the highest, followed by the between-region component, while the between-province component was the lowest.(2) Compared with other economic zones, the Middle Reach of Yellow River Economic Zone, the Northeast Economic Zone, the Southwest Economic Zone and the Northeast Economic Zone had relatively great economic disparities.(3) The number of provinces with a decline within-province economic disparities was increasing.(4) China's regional economic disparities showed a significant spatial polarization trend with a rising change of HH type districts, a stable trend of LL type districts and a relatively small number of HL and LH type districts.Finally, the paper briefly analyzed the impact factors of regional economic disparities since 2000. This paper argued that the difference of Chinese regional development policy was the main macro factor, such as strategies of Western China Development, Revitalizing the Northeast Old Industrial Bases and the Rise of Central China. Location and infrastructure difference were the factors that objectively led to regional economic disparities. Differences of resource endowments were the initial factors causing economic disparities, which were also influenced by the allocation and efficiency of resource utilization. Differences of investment in fixed assets were the direct factor that contributed to economic disparities. Division of executive power was another important factor leading to the concentrated distribution of poverty zones.