海南冬种瓜菜气象灾害风险评估与区划

Meteorological damage risk assessment and zoning for winter melon and vegetables in Hainan province

基于自然灾害风险理论,利用海南省18个站点气象资料、瓜菜生产和社会经济要素资料,通过灾情反演,构建苗期湿涝、冬季寒害和春季干旱致灾等级指标。综合致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力,进行瓜菜气象灾害的综合风险分析与区划。结果表明:苗期湿涝危险性从西南至东北增加,春季干旱危险性东西高、中间低;西瓜寒害危险性从中部向两边减小,豇豆和丝瓜寒害危险性从南往北加重,辣椒寒害危险性从东南到西北增加;苗期湿涝孕灾环境敏感性从中部山区向沿海和平原地区增加,春季干旱和冬季寒害趋势相反;瓜菜灾损风险和防灾能力在区域上存在明显差异;西瓜、豇豆和辣椒气象灾害综合风险总体趋势一致,高风险区集中在海南东部地区;丝瓜气象灾害综合风险高值区在北部地区。

Hainan, an important agricultural zone for winter melon and vegetables in China,suffers from waterlogging, chilling and drought risk that threaten agricultural production. According to the theoretical framework of natural disaster risk system, using daily meteorological observation data of 18 stations from 1998 to 2011, disasters data(from 1998 to 2011), production data(from 1999 to 2011) of melon and vegetables and socioeconomic statistical data(from2002 to 2011), hazard grade indices, including precipitation and temperature, were constructed. A comprehensive model was built, which integrates with hazard, damage environment sensibility, damage loss and damage prevention capability, to assess disaster damage risk for melon and vegetables. The result showed that waterlogging hazard increased from southwest to northeast, and drought hazard was more serious in east and west than in central Hainan. Chilling hazard for watermelon decreased form central to east and west parts, while it increased from south to north for cowpea and luffa, and increased from southeast to northwest for paprika. Based on disaster hazard spatial pattern, it is implicated that more attention should be paid to those serious hazard regions. Damage environment sensibility of waterlogging rose from central Wuzhishan-Yinggeling-Yajiada mountains to peripherial regions while that of chilling and drought had the contrary pattern. Furthermore, damage loss was similar for melon and vegetables which was high in central Hainan. Damage prevention capability for melon and vegetables differed in different regions especially for high value regions, and its lower value was mainly observed in central regions. The zoning of comprehensive damage risk was similar for watermelon, cowpea and paprika which was higher in eastern Hainan. Comprehensive damage risk for luffa was higher in the northern part while lower in the southeastern. Overall, the disaster hazard index was appropriate in the analysis, and the above zoning matched well with the actual disaster situation in Hainan. The results can provide useful information and expand the understanding of disaster risk for melon and vegetables and helpful to the decision making for agrometeorological disaster risk management.