舟山群岛旅游生态健康动态评价

Dynamic assessment on tourism ecological health in Zhoushan Islands

旅游生态健康评价是生态健康评价理论在旅游领域的具体应用。从旅游生态健康的定义和特征出发,构建了基于活力、组织结构、恢复力、服务功能、社区人群健康和教育水平的舟山群岛旅游生态健康评价指标体系;使用最小二乘法模型、多目标线性加权函数模型和障碍度模型对其2000-2012年旅游生态健康状况进行了动态评价以及障碍因子分析,并根据其变化趋势,使用GM(1,1)模型预测了2013-2015年舟山群岛旅游生态健康发展趋势。研究表明:12000-2012年,舟山群岛旅游生态健康指数总体呈上升趋势,其数值由0.231增加至0.790;2旅游总收入、环保投入占GDP比重、城镇生活污水处理率和旅客运输量4个指标是影响舟山群岛旅游生态健康的主要障碍因子;3 2013-2015年,舟山群岛旅游生态健康指数将继续呈上升趋势,其预测值分别为0.873、0.965和1.065。

Assessment on ecosystem health is the application of assessment on ecosystem health theory in the field of tourism research. Based on the definition and characteristics of tourism ecological health, the authors built a set of evaluation indicators of tourism ecological health namely vigor, organization structure, restoring force, service function, community crowd health and education level. Afterwards, tourism ecological health in Zhoushan Islands between2000 and 2012 was evaluated with least squares model, multi-objective linear weighting function model and the obstacle degree model, the tourism ecological health index of Zhoushan Islands was also been forecasted by GM(1,1) model based on its developing trend. The results were shown as follows:(1) tourism ecosystem health index in Zhoushan Islands presented a rising trend between 2000 and 2012 as a whole, whose figure is from 0.231 to 0.790. The tourism ecological health indexes of the community crowd health and education level, restoring force,vigor, service function and the organization structure also increased.(2) The main obstacle factors that affected the tourism ecosystem health in Zhoushan Islands were tourism revenue, the proportion of environmental protection investment in GDP, urban sewage treatment rate, and tourist traffic number.(3) The tourism ecosystem health in Zhoushan Islands will keep improving from 2013 to 2015 with predicted health indexes of 0.873, 0.965 and 1.065, and health indexes of the subsystem of vigor, organization structure, restoring force, service function, community crowd health and education levels will also keep improving from 2013 to 2015, which predicted that health indexes are 0.873, 0.965 and 1.065, and health indexes of the subsystem of vigor element, organization structure, restoring force, service function, community crowd health and education levels will also keep improving. The following questions need to be further researched:(1) assessment index system needs further improvement, espacially the establishment of a system of islands tourism ecological health index;(2) construction of a targeted tourism ecosystem health evaluation index and evaluation model, according to different space scales of tourism destinations, such as scenic spots, provincial tourist destination and destination country;(3) to define the connotation of the ecological health of tourism, identify factors, determine the standard of tourism ecological health, use GIS and RS technology in tourism ecological health assessment,and predict the tourism development trend accurately.