DP半岛街头抢劫案件的临近重复发生模式

Patterns of near-repeat street robbery in DP peninsula

以往研究已经证实某些特定的犯罪类型(如入室盗窃、枪击案件)存在临近重复发生的现象,但是街头抢劫案件是否也同样存在临近重复发生的现象则很少被关注。以H市中心城区DP半岛为研究区域,探索岛上街头抢劫案件的时空分布规律,研究对象为岛上2006-2011年发生的街头抢劫案件(共373起)。利用纳克斯检验(knox test)方法结合重复临近发生计算工具对DP半岛内街头抢劫案件是否存在临近重复发生现象进行探索性分析。研究发现:其一,研究区内的街头抢劫案件在多个空间—时间标度下存在着显著的临近重复发生现象。其二,选取其中最有代表性的空间—时间标度内具有临近重复发生现象的案件,研究其空间分布规律和年际变化规律。结果表明:1"前案件点"在空间分布呈现集聚现象,具有集中分布在主干道区域、土地利用混合程度较高区域以及道路通达性较高的区域三个特征。而针对"前案件点"进行防控切断"临近重复发生链",将减少54起案件的发生。2临近重复发生现象案件在年际分布上的波动变化与警务"严打"行动之间的动态联系,表明"严打"行动对街头抢劫案件的临近重复发生有强烈的抑制作用;而且相比一般案件,临近重复发生案件的发生更加集中于午夜。

Former research has confirmed some types of crime(burglary, gun-assault, etc.)show near-repeat phenomenon. But near-repeat phenomenon of street robbery has little been concerned. The objectives of this research are street robbery cases(373 in total) in DP Peninsula in inner city of H city. This research explores spatial-temporal distribution of street robbery cases. Near-repeat phenomenon of street robbery cases in DP Peninsula is explanatorily examined using Knox examination combined with near-repeat calculation tools. Research results show that:(1) street robbery cases in the study areas present obvious near-repeat phenomenon in multi-spatial-temporal scales;(2) in all spatial-temporal scales, the most typical near-repeat phenomenon in a certain scale(200 meters/15-28 days) can be selected as a special case to analyze the spatial distribution patterns and yearly changing patterns. It can be further concluded that:(1) 'initiator-crime points' are located spatially aggregately, mainly in main roads, high land-use mixed areas and high accessibility areas. Prevention and controlling actions on 'initiator-crime points' to cut off near-repeat chains result in the decrease of robbery cases by 54.(2)The fluctuation of near-repeat phenomenon shows close dynamic connection between street robbery cases and 'Crackdown Action', further indicating Crackdown Action's strong restraining effects on street robbery near-repeat.