石羊河下游农户的生计风险及应对策略——以民勤绿洲区为例

The farmers' livelihood risk and their coping strategy in the downstream of Shiyang River: A case of Minqin Oasis

石羊河下游农户面临着严峻的风险冲击,使其生计脆弱性加剧。当前急需辨明农户面临的主要风险,探索阻碍农户抵御风险冲击的潜在因素,并依此找寻提高农户风险应对能力的对策措施。基于入户调查数据,分析了石羊河下游民勤绿洲区农户面临的主要生计风险及应对策略,并采用多元logistic模型分析了影响风险应对策略选择的因素。结果发现:1市场、教育及自然风险已成为农户面临的最主要生计风险,其中纯农户(全部劳动力均从事农业生产)与一兼户(非农收入比重<50%)主要面临市场、教育及自然风险,二兼户(50%≤非农收入比重<90%)为市场、健康及教育风险,非农户(非农收入比重≥90%)为教育、健康及养老风险;2减少消费、外出打工、动用储蓄、向亲友寻求帮助、向银行借贷是农户应对风险的主要策略,其中非农户的首选策略中居首位的是外出打工,其他三类农户均为减少消费;3人力资本、金融资本、社会资本是影响农户风险应对策略选择的最重要因素,物质资本次之,自然资本的影响最弱。最后,提出了提高农户风险应对能力的对策建议。

There have always been kinds of livelihood risks in the environment, which will lower the level of the person or the family welfare, and restrict the region sustainable development.Shiyang River basin is located in the arid area of northwest China, and belongs to the typical arid inland basin. As the major economic activity unit in the downstream of the Shiyang River,the farmers are faced with the serious livelihood risk, which has aggravated the farmers' livelihood vulnerability. It is extremely urgent now to distinguish the key livelihood risk which the farmers are facing, explore the potential factors which has hindered the farmers to resist the risk and seek the effective risk coping strategy. Through stratified random sampling survey, participatory rural appraisal and investigation of plot, 484 households are investigated and sampled. Farmers are divided into four types: pure agriculture households, agriculture- dependent households, off- farm dependent households and off- farm households. Based on the investigation data, we identify the main livelihood risk which the farmers are faced with and their risk coping strategies, and analyze the factors which influence the farmers' risk strategy choice using the multi- logistic model. The results show:(1) The market risk, education risk and nature risk have been the main livelihood risks which the farmers are facing in the downstream of Shiyang River, but there are differences among different types of farmers. The top three livelihood risks facing the pure agriculture households and agriculture- dependent households are from market, education and nature; the risks facing the off-farm dependent households are from market, health and education; the risks facing the off- farm households are education, health and pension risk in sequence.(2) The main risk coping strategies include reducing consumption, going out to work, dissaving, asking relatives and friends for help and getting bank loans. However, there are some differences in the risk coping strategy choices among the different types of farmers. The first choice of off-farm households is going out to work, but the other three types of farmers would choose reducing consumption;(3) The most important factors which influence the choices of risk coping strategies are human capital, financial capital and social capital;material capital comes second; nature capital has the weakest influence. Finally, we present the risk control measures to reduce the livelihood risk possibility and give the suggestions to promote the farmers' risk coping ability.