基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度

Measurement of vulnerability in human-sea economic system based on set pair analysis: A case study of Dalian city

运用集对分析和脆弱性评估相结合的研究方法,以典型沿海城市大连为例,分析1998-2012年大连市人海经济系统脆弱性的演变趋势及主要影响因素,并提出相应的对策建议。结果表明:1敏感性呈下降趋势,对内和对外冲击的应对能力表现出总体平稳、阶段波动频繁趋势,人海经济系统脆弱性整体不断下降;2运用回归分析法分析大连市人海经济系统的敏感性、应对能力与脆弱性之间的关系,结果表明敏感性的强弱对大连市人海经济系统脆弱性的影响居于主导地位;3通过"障碍度"分析表明海洋资源过度利用、产业结构不合理和环境污染是应对能力降低的主要因子。建议通过改变经济增长方式,控制海洋资源的过度开发,充分合理利用资源,发展科学技术,加强海洋污染治理等措施提高应对性,实现降低大连市人海经济系统脆弱性的目标。

Based on a detailed description on the conception of human- sea economic system vulnerability(MESV) and the object of Dalian city, the paper establishes an MESV assessment model for the analysis of Dalian city, a typical coastal city, from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity. Then it uses the entropy method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights, combined with the methods of set pair analysis and vulnerability assessment.This paper aims to examine the evolution trends and major factors influencing vulnerability in the human- sea economic system from 1998 to 2012. At last, it puts forward some concrete development countermeasures. On the whole, the results indicate that vulnerability shows a declining trend in the human-sea economic system of Dalian city during the past 15 years, and the sensitivity to adverse disturbance exhibits a declining trend and the response capacity presents a generally stable, frequent fluctuations for internal and external shocks. The MESV can be divided into two stages: the MESV declines with fluctuation year by year from 1998 to2005, and shows an inverted U- shaped curve from 2006 to 2012. The evolution of sensitivity can be divided into three stages: decreased obviously form 1998 to 2006; increased slightly from 2007 to 2008, then declined slowly year by year from 2009 to 2012. The evolution of response capacity fluctuation emerged from 1998 to 2002 and then went up steadily from 2002 to 2012. The influence of sensitivity to the vulnerability is significant in human-sea economic system of Dalian city among the sensitivity, response capacity and vulnerability by using regression analysis. The results of obstacle analysis indicate that over- exploitation of marine resources, unreasonable industrial structure and environmental pollution are the most important factors affecting the regional vulnerability degree. It is suggested that to improve response capacity and mitigate the vulnerability in the human- sea economic system of Dalian city, we should change the style of economic growth, reduce over-exploitation and rational utilization of marine resources, develop science and technology and cultivate talents, as well as prevent marine pollution and strengthen environmental protection.