瓦斯涌出量预测的GM(1,1)模型初始条件优化

Gas Emission Forecasts for GM(1,1) Model Optimized Initial Condition

针对传统GM(1,1)模型以第1个点为初始条件预测瓦斯涌出量时产生的偏差,采用第m个点代替第1个点对模型进行了优化,提出了对一次累加数据与预测数据用最小二乘法确定预测公式的选取。实例检验结果表明,优化的GM(1,1)模型能取得较高的瓦斯涌出量预测精度。

For traditional GM(1,1) model with the first one point as the initial condition occurs error when predict the amount of gas emission,used the m-th point in place of the first point optimize on the model,presented on a cumulative data and forecast data to determine the predictive formula chosen by the least squares method.The result of the example showed,optimized GM(1,1) model achieved high prediction accuracy of gas emission.