我国卫生总费用影响因素实证研究与预测分析

Empirical Analysis on Influencing Factors and Prediction of Chinese Total Expenditure on Health

目的:对卫生总费用的影响因素进行实证研究,并运用模型对卫生总费用占国内生产总值的比重进行预测分析,为卫生部门制定政策提供数据参考和对策建议。方法:采用计量经济学中的协整理论,检验变量之间是否存在协整关系来进行实证研究,运用时间序列分析中模型进行预测。结果:国内生产总值、城市化率与卫生总费用之间存在长期稳定的正向相关关系,政府卫生事业费占财政预算支出比例与卫生总费用存在长期负相关关系。(5,1,2)模型预测误差值均在3%以内,预测精度较高,2013~2017年卫生总费用占百分比分别为5.45%、5.50%、5.57%、5.64%和5.71%。结论:政府应拓宽筹资渠道,加大对卫生事业的投入力度,完善医疗服务供方的补偿机制,抑制卫生费用的不合理增长。

Objective:Making empirical analysis on influencing factors of the total expenditure and using model to predict the ra-tio of the total expenditure to gross domestic product, to provide data reference and suggestions for policy making of the department ofhealth.Methods:Taking the cointegration theory in econometrics, checking whether there is a cointegration relationship betweenvariables to make empirical analysis, using model in time series analysis to do the prediction.Results:GDP and urbanization ratehave a long-term positive relationship to the total health expenditure, the ratio of health expenditure accounts for financial budget hasa long-term negative relationship to the total health expenditure. The error of predictive value is within 3%, prediction accuracy ishigh. From 2013 to 2017, the ratio of the total expenditure to gross domestic product are 5.45%,5.50%,5.57%,5.64%,5.71%.Conclusion:The government should?broaden the financing channels, increase the spending on health care, perfect the compensation mecha-nism of the supplier of medical services, suppress unreasonable growth of health expenditure.