深化医改关键时期我国卫生总费用构成预测分析

Prediction Analysis on the Financing Structure of Total Health Expenditure in China in the Key Period of Deepening Medical Reform

目的:分析深化医改背景下我国卫生总费用构成未来一段时期发展变化趋势。方法:结合现行卫生政策,利用2003—2012年我国卫生总费用构成数据,通过灰色系统理论对2013—2016年卫生总费用构成情况进行灰色预测和灰色关联分析。结果:在深化医改关键期,政府和社会卫生支出比重逐年提高,个人支出比重将下降到30%以下。结论:卫生总费用受政府和社会医疗保障支出影响较大,应加强对医保制度设计的相关研究。

Objective:To analyze the development changing trend of the total expenditure on health(THE) of China in a future pe-riod under the background of deepening medical reform.Methods:Combined with current health policy, the construction data of2003—2012 THE in China was used to perform gray prediction and gray correlation on the construction of 2013—2016 THE in Chi-na.Results:In the key period of deepening medical reform, the proportion of government and social health expenditure increased byyears, personal expenditure decreased below 30%.Conclusion: Total expenditure on health was more influenced by government andsocial medical insurance expenditure. It should enhance relative analysis on medical system design.