人口老龄化背景下北京市城镇职工医疗保险隐性负债测算研究

Analysis on the Implicit Debt Estimation of the Beijing Social Medical Insurance for Urban Employers under the Background of Population Aging

目的:测算北京城镇职工医疗保险隐性负债的规模。方法:构建精算模型,依据北京市城镇职工医疗保险运行状况以及该地区的经济发展状况,定义和选取了模型中的相关参数,以2010年为基期,对北京城镇职工医疗保险未来84年产生的隐性负债进行了测算。结果:北京城镇职工医疗保险体系中存在较大规模的隐性债务,高达2 600亿以上;在职参保人群隐性负债高于退休人群,在职人参保人群隐性负债中男性略高于女性,退休参保人群隐性负债中女性远高于男性。结论:政府应当积极采取应对措施,化解隐性负债,才能保障职工医保平稳运行。

Objective:To calculate the scale of implicit debt of medical insurance for Beijing urban employees.Methods:Accord-ing to the operation status of medical insurance for Beijing urban employees and the economic development status of the region, itconstructed the estimation model, defined and chose the related indicators of the model. Taking 2010 as the base period, the implicitdebt of social medical insurance for Beijing urban employees in further 84 years were estimated.Results:There were large scale ofimplicit debt in medical insurance system of Beijing urban employees, which achieved to 260 billion yuan; the implicit debts of theon-the-job group was higher than the retired group, the implicit debts of the male on-the-job group was higher than the female.Conclusion:The government should positively take measurements to release the implicit debt so as to keep the smooth operation of medi-cal insurance for employees.