城镇化、老龄化及经济发展对我国医疗费用影响回归分析

Regression Analysis on the Impacts of Urbanization, Aging Population and Economic Development on the Medical Expense in China

目的:探讨我国城镇化、老龄化、经济发展三因素对医疗费用增长的影响,并据此提出减低医疗费用的对策和建议。方法:基于2003—2013年全国31个省人均GDP、65岁以上老年人口抚养比及城镇化率等指标,运用多元线性回归进行定量分析和检验。结果:经济发展水平、老龄化及城镇化三个因素对我国医疗费用的增长均具有显著影响,其中城镇化的影响最大,经济发展水平次之,老龄化最小。结论:随着城镇化水平与社会老龄化程度的提高,我国医疗费用的提高已远远超过同期经济增长速度,政府应当对此承担更多责任,在增加医保投入、加强医疗行业费用的监管等方面发挥作用,合理降低我国医疗费用的开支。

Objective:To explore the effects of the urbanization,aging population and economic development on the growth of themedical expense,based on which,the countermeasures and suggestions for decreasing medical expense were proposed.Methods:Based on the indicators of per capita GDP,the aged dependency ratio(older than 65),the urbanization rate among 31 provinces inChina from 2003 to 2013. Multiple linear regression was applied to perform the quantitative analysis and examine.Results:Economicdevelopment,aging population and urbanization all had significant influences on the increasing medical expense in China,while theurbanization occupied the largest proportion,followed by the economic development,and the aging population had the smallest.Conclusion:With the increasing of urbanization level and social aging degree,the promotion of China medical expense had far beyond thespeed of economic growth of the same period. The government should take more responsibilities for that,play role in the supervisionfor increasing medical insurance and enhancing medical industry expenses so as to reasonably decrease the medical expense in China.