典型复杂地形风能预报的精细化研究

Wind Power Forecasting over the Typical Complex Terrains

选取江苏和内蒙古分别作为中国沿海滩涂与内陆复杂高原山地的典型地形代表,通过中尺度模式WRF V3.3.1两种不同边界层参数化方案(YSU/MRF)的对比检验,选择WRF/Noah/YSU作为典型地形的风场预报系统,并利用该预报系统对2010年研究区域分别进行了1 km水平分辨率、10 min时间分辨率的48 h风场滚动预报,进一步通过功率谱检验、风向风速玫瑰图检验、季节变化检验,以及日变化检验表明,WRF/Noah/YSU的风场预报方案能够较准确地预报出测风塔的风场特征和风场的能量频谱分布,风场的日变化与季节变化的预报特征基本与测风塔观测结果一致。预报系统对春、秋季的预报效果优于夏季,日变化的预报效果因地形而异,无统一变化规律。

Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia were selected as typical complex terrains of coastal beaches and inland plateaus,respectively. The wind forecasting system for the typical complex terrain of China are examined bycomparing the two simulation experiments betw een the two boundary layer parameterization schemes(YSU / MRF)using the mesoscale WRF V3. 3. 1(Weather Research and Forecasting) model. The 48 h wind forecasting with1 km horizontal resolution and 10 min time resolution were performed for Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia in 2010.The WRF / Noah / YSU wind forecasting system was proved to be more accurately on wind characteristics,wind power distribution,and the prevailing wind pattern during the analysis of power spectrum,wind rose diagram,and thew ind variation. The WRF / Noah / YSU wind forecasting system has more ability in spring and autumn than in summer,but the forecast error on diurnalw ind variation is different for its different terrain.