温度驱动、经济增长与居民生活能源消费

Temperature-driven,Economy Growth and Residential Energy Consumption

在1阶段Becker-Grossman模型的基础上,引入日平均降雨量、人均总产出和地域虚拟变量,分析水旱灾害、温度、经济增长和地域差别因素对我国居民能源消费的影响。采用2004年~2011年30个省域数据建立面板模型,研究发现:(1)各省居民基础生活能源消费存在的明显的个体差异,欠发达地区和高海拔地区的生活能源消费基数较高;(2)我国居民能源消费形式已不同于上世纪90年代之前的灾害驱动型,而达到了与发达国家相似的温度驱动型时期,能源消费量与温度关系曲线呈U型,且温度调节的成本差异导致曲线左右不对称;(3)经济增长效应大于温度驱动效应,是近年来我国居民生活能源增加的主要原因,收入能源消费弹性系数仅为0.39,未来能源消费还会进一步增加。最后本文对模型进行了6种形式的扩展,发现模型具有良好的稳健性。

This paper adopts improved 1-step Becker-Grossman model,introduced rain,per GDP and region dummy variable to study their impacts on the residential energy consumption. Using the data of province from 2004 to 2011,We find that:①There is significant individual differences of basic energy consumption in each province,less developed areas and high altitudes areas with higher energy consumption base;②Energy consumption patterns of residents is different from the 1990s,and it reached temperature-driven times in-stead of disaster-driven,similar with developed countries. Energy consumption and temperature exists U-shaped curve,and difference temperature adjustment cost leads to asymmetry;③Economic growth effect is greater than the temperature effect in recent years,and is the main factor that drove China’s residents energy increasing. The income elasticity of energy consumption is only 0. 39,energy con-sumption will further increase in the future. At the end of this paper,we make six kinds of extension,and find that the model has good robustness.