我国双顺差成因分析

A Study on the Determinants of China's Twin Surplus

笔者利用实证模型检验,得出我国外部失衡根源于内部经济失衡:首先,以贸易部门为代表的第二产业比例过高导致贸易顺差增大;其次,收入分配失衡导致国内消费需求和投资需求不足,进一步刺激双顺差的形成;最后,金融结构失衡导致企业储蓄率居高不下,也是双顺差增大的重要成因。因此,要调整外部失衡,应优化产业结构,提高居民收入份额,扩大内需;完善金融市场,以实现国内储蓄向投资的有效流动。

Based on the empirical model test,we come that internal economic imbalances are the roots of external imbalances. (1) The high proportion of secondary industry which is represented by trade department resulted in increasing trade surplus. ( 2 ) The income distribution imbalance lead to the decrease of the residents' income share and further insufficient domestic consumption demand and in-vestment demand, which stimulate the formation of twin surplus. (3)The financial structure imbalance lead to high savings rate of en-terprise, which prompted the twin surplus. Therefore,in order to adjust the external imbalances, industrial structure should be optimized and the residents’ income share be increased to expand domestic demand. Furthermore,financial market should be improved to realize the effective flow of domestic savings to investment.