TPP对我国对外贸易和投资的影响及对策——基于异质性企业理论的视角

The Effect of TPP on Foreign Trade,Investment and China's Corresponding Strategy——A Heterogeneous Firms Theory Perspective

笔者通过扩展现有异质性企业贸易模型,结合相关自由贸易协定理论,探讨了TPP对中国和美国对外贸易和直接投资产生的影响以及现阶段中国应对TPP发展的政策组合等问题。研究结论表明,TPP将对中美两国产生截然不同的贸易和投资效应:现有TPP推动的贸易自由化将抑制中国的出口和外商直接投资,却能扩大美国的出口和外资流入;现阶段中国加入TPP的难度可能较大;扩大内需和推动中日韩自贸区的建立是目前中国应对TPP发展的可行政策组合。

TPP( Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement) is one of the most important FTA( Free Trade Area) . Combi-ning related FTA theory,the paper extends the existing heterogeneous firms trade model and analyzes the effect of TPP on the China’ s foreign trade and investment and the corresponding measures which China should take. The paper finds that TPP will exert very different effects on China and America. The trade liberalization which TPP want to promote will restrain China’ s trade and FDI,but promote A-merica’ s export and inward FDI. At present stage,China is less likely to join in the TPP. Promoting the domestic demand and establis-hing the China/Japan/Korea FTA can alleviate the negative effect that TPP may exert on China.