中国生态效率演变与环境规制的关系——基于SBM模型和省际面板数据估计

Relationship between China Ecological Efficiency and Environmental Regulation——Based on SBM Model and Provincial Panel Data

本文利用包含非期望产出的非径向、非角度的SBM模型,计算了2003~2011年中国大陆地区30个省、直辖市、自治区的生态效率,并对其时空演变特征进行了分析,基于此,利用Tobit面板数据估计模型,分析了环境规制与生态效率之间的经验关系,以探讨前者对后者的影响作用,得出以下结论:(1)中国大部分地区的生态效率普遍较低,且生态效率均值呈现逐年下降趋势;(2)生态效率的空间格局与经济空间格局类似,基本呈现东部地区高,西部地区低,中部地区介于两者之间,且此种空间格局在研究期间没有大的变化;(3)环境规制政策的实施在短期内对生态效率的提高具有一定的负效应,即短期内环境规制的遵循成本大于创新补偿效益;就长期而言,环境规制对生态效率提升表现出一定的促进作用,且这种促进作用是通过对产业结构、城市化、技术等控制因素的"倒逼机制"实现的,但倒逼机制的作用有限。

The paper calculated the ecological efficiency of 30 provinces in China during 2003 ~ 2011 by using non-radial and non-oriented SBM model with undesirable out-put and analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution of eco-efficiency. Then,the paper applied the Tobit panel data model to explore the impacts of environmental regulation on eco-efficiency. The results indicate that:( 1) Ecological efficiency in most part of China is low,and the average of eco-efficiency is declining.( 2) Eastern China is the most eco-efficient region,followed by Central China. In contrast,the Western China is the worst performers.( 3) Environmental regulation has negative effects on eco-efficiency in short term,but in the long run,the effects change into positive. And the positive effects induced by the reversed transmission impacts of environmental regulation on the control factors such as industrial structure,urbanization,technology.