二次人口红利视角下弹性退休制度对养老保险的影响

The Influence of Flexible Retirement System to the Pension Insurance under the Second Demographic Dividend Perspective

中国社会正呈现出一种未富先老的状态,沿用新中国成立之初的退休政策使得中国的养老保险体制面临着巨大的压力。笔者通过建立两期的世代交叠模型,分析不同的弹性退休年龄对劳动力人口的缴费率、老龄人口替代率的影响。结果表明:在现收现付养老保险制度下,人口老龄化率会随着退休年龄的推迟而不断降低,一方面在替代率不变的情况下,养老保险的缴费率不断降低,另一方面在保持缴费率不变的情况下,替代率不断升高。因此建设应根据性别、年龄、地区和行业的不同特点,渐进式地推迟退休机制。

Confronted with aging before getting worthy,China is undertaking immerse press by following endowment insurance which was carried out just by the establishment of New China. By setting a two-period overlapping generation model,this paper analyzes the effect of different flexible retirement age on workforce endowment insurance payment rate and the aged replacement rate. The result shows that:( 1) Aging rate will decline while the retirement age delaying under pay-as-you-go system.( 2) Endowment insurance payment rate should go down on the condition of endowment insurance replacement getting unchanged.( 3) Endowment insurance replacement should rise on the condition of endowment insurance payment rate unchanged.( 4) Gradual delaying retirement age policy should be adopted according to the difference of gender,age,region,industry et al.