资源-产业“雁行式”演进规律

Resources-Industry ‘flying geese' evolving pattern

探寻经济-产业-资源之间内在规律,对把握资源产业发展脉络、明确不同阶段矿产资源战略重点意义重大。本文首先总结了一国经济增速及第二产业占比随人均GDP呈先增长、后达到峰值区的"钟"形变化规律,且二者峰值区均在人均GDP 7 500GK美元左右,其次,通过分析美国和日本产业演进历史,总结了第二产业内部"雁行式"演进序列。进一步提出了资源-产业"雁行式"演进规律:即在理想状态下,对于典型的走工业化发展道路的国家,其产业部门基本遵循建筑→冶金→家电→机械制造→化工与汽车→电力→计算机、电子→航天军工→其他新兴产业等的"雁行式"演进序列,而支撑上述产业发展的矿产资源消费峰期也具有相应的"雁行式"演进序列,美国和日本产业发展与资源消费历史的相关关系较好地验证了该规律。中国工业部门相对完善,矿产资源消费领域相对集中,符合资源-产业"雁行式"演进规律,本文基于该规律建立了中国矿产资源消费图谱,确定了主要矿产资源需求峰值到来时间及峰值水平。

With economic development and progress in science and technology,industry sectors continue to evolve and drive mineral resource demand changes. Exploring the internal laws of the economy-industry between resources is important for understanding the industry development context and focusing on mineral resource strategies at different stages. First,we summarize the‘bell-shape'law of a country's economic growth and second industry,whereby economic growth and the second industry ratio increases first,then declines gradually after peaking as GDP per capita increases and both of the peak is at 7500 GK dollars. Second,by analyzing the US and Japan industrial evolution,we sum up the‘flying geese'evolving sequence around inside sectors of the second industry. According to the sequence we present the Resource-Industry‘flying geese'evolving pattern,that is,under ideal conditions,for a typical country experiencing industrialization the evolution of its industrial sector is:Building→Ferrous Metallurgy→Appliance Industries→Machinery→Chemical Industry and Automotive Industry→Power Sector→Electronics Industry→Aerospace Industry and Military industry→Other Emerging Industries. While the relative mineral resource consumption peak is consistent with the evolution sequence. The US's and Japan's history of industrial development and mineral resource consumption verified this law. Finally,through the analysis of China's current situation we found that China has a relatively sound industrial sector and mineral resources consumption is relatively concentrated,which is in line with the resource-industry‘flying geese'evolving pattern.