中国铬需求预测及资源供应安全态势分析

Chinese chromium demand forecasting and resource supply security

铬是全球公认的战略物资。随着近年来中国铬资源需求的快速上升,铬资源进口量也大幅增加,铬资源供应安全面临多重威胁。本文首先分析了中国铬资源供需现状,然后通过总结发达国家经验,预测了中国铬资源未来的需求趋势;在此基础上,本文构建了包括国内供需因素、进口因素、国际市场因素在内的3个二级指标以及现有资源保障度、二次资源回收水平等9个三级指标的铬资源供应安全指标体系,并采用层次分析法评价了中国铬资源供应安全现状,计算了中国2000年、2005年、2010年、2013年、2020年和2030年的铬资源供应安全指数。结果表明:中国铬资源供应安全指数呈现先下降后上升的变化趋势,近年来铬资源供应不安全程度持续上升,目前已处于高位,未来随着2020年铬资源需求到达顶点、二次资源回收水平的上升以及进口来源渠道的拓展,中国铬资源安全形势将逐步好转。

Chromium is recognized worldwide as a strategic material because it is hard and wearing,and widely used in the national defense and economic construction sectors. With the rapid rise in stainless steel production in China in recent years,for which chromium is an essential element,Chinese chromium resource imports have increased rapidly and China's chromium resource supply security faces multiple threats. Here we analyze the present situation of supply and demand of chromium resources in China,and then summarize the stainless steel production experience of developed countries because chromium demand is closely related to stainless steel production. Our overall goal was to forecast the demand of chromium resources in China,and to do this we constructed a chromium resource supply security index system including domestic supply and demand factors,import factors,international market factors,three secondary indicators,and nine third-level indicators(e.g. existing resource guarantee degree,resource two times recovery). Using the analytic hierarchy process we evaluated the safety status of chromium supply in China and calculated the index of chromium resource supply security in 2000,2005,2010,2013,2020 and 2030. We found that the chromium resource supply security index decreases initially and then increases and the chromium resources supply safety rate continues to rise and may already be at high levels. In the future,chromium resource demand will reach its highest point at 2020,two resource recycling levels will rise,and China will expand imports. At the same time China's chromium resource security situation will gradually ease.