全球铜的生产与消费及其未来需求预测

Production, consumption rules and demand prediction of global copper

本文概述了全球铜资源状况,总结了全球铜生产、消费的变化规律和行业需求趋势。总体而言,全球铜资源丰富,基本能够满足需求。铜储量约一半集中在美洲地区,但全球对美洲地区铜资源的依赖正在降低。同时,全球铜的生产与消费呈现增长率快慢交替的周期性变化,且增速逐渐递减。全球铜消费由欧美发达地区向亚洲地区转移,建筑业对铜的需求巨大。通过对人均铜累积量的测算预测了全球矿山铜需求量,全球铜的需求将长期保持增长。

Copper is one of the most important base metals and is tightly connected to social and economic development. Much research into the global supply and demand of copper has been done. Here,a new method of copper cumulation per capita is used to predict global copper demand.On the basis of the quantity of copper,we have summarized the rules of reserve distribution,production and consumption of global copper and found that global copper reserves are 690 million metric tons. This amount can meet global demand,half of which is in Chile,Peru and Mexico.More and more copper reserves are being discovered in other areas such as Australia,China,Mongolia and Papua New Guinea. The growth of global copper production and consumption follows a regular periodic rule(e.g. fast and slow)and growth is slower and slower. The Asian consumption proportion rose from 11% to 62% between 1960 and 2013,so global copper consumption is transferring to Asia from Europe and North America. For global copper consumption,the proportion for building construction is the highest and rising year by year;therefore,building construction will pose enormous demands on copper. The global demand of mine copper was predicted by the calculation of copper cumulation per capita. Up to 2050,the global demand of mine copper will be 110 million metric tons,and until 2100 demand will be 320 million metric tons. The global demand of mine copper will continue to grow for a long time.