全球锌消费及需求预测与中国锌产业发展

Global zinc consumption and demand forecast and development of China's zinc industry

本文以全球10多个典型发达国家近100年的锌消费历史为研究基础,按锌消费特征分为两类国家:1美国、日本等国家,主要消费在建筑和基础设施领域;2德国、意大利等国家,主要应用于机械制造、电子等行业,都具有"S"形消费规律。在此规律基础上,将全球分为不同发展阶段的4类国家集团,对全球锌需求进行预测。预测结果显示:未来全球锌需求将持续增长,但增速将放缓,主要发达国家需求将逐步减少,中国需求已经进峰值区,全球锌需求增长点将转向印度和东盟。

Here,we looked at 10 typical zinc consumption countries over 100 years and identified two kinds of state. The first comprises the US,Japan and other countries,wherein the main zinc consumption is due to construction and infrastructure,per capita GDP is 10 000~12 000 USD,zinc consumption has peaked,and an S shaped consumer law exists. The second comprises Germany,Italy and other countries,wherein zinc is mainly used in machinery manufacturing,electronics and other industries,per capita consumption vertices are around 20 000 USD,and S shape consumption patterns exist. Based on this law,the world was divided into four groups of countries at different development stages to predict global demand for zinc. Forecast results showed that by 2030 global demand for zinc will reach 17 million tons,representing growth of 37% from 2012. In the future,global zinc demand will continue to grow,but at a significantly slower rate than over the past 20years;the main demand in developed countries will gradually decline. China has entered its peak demand zone and future global zinc demand growth suggests India and ASEAN members. Our study of medium and long term scale scientific projections for global demand and patterns provide a macro backdrop and basis for the development of China's strategic planning regarding the zinc industry.