镍价格的主要影响因素及其未来价格走势分析

Main factors affecting the nickel price and a preliminary analysis of future nickel prices

镍是重要的战略性矿产。研究影响镍价格的各种因素及预测未来价格走势,对于更好地了解国际镍市场,并提出应对措施是非常必要的。本文在系统收集供需形势、供应安全、市场变化、价格走势等文献资料基础上,应用Eviews软件,以协整分析为主要手段,从供需角度入手,分析不锈钢产量(镍的主要消费领域)与LME镍年均价格、LME镍库存与价格、LME镍现货结算价与国内上海物贸镍均价的关系,并结合诸如印尼禁矿等多种突发、偶发的不确定因素,深入分析影响镍价格的主要因素,对镍价格未来走势进行初步分析。结果表明,需求因素(不锈钢产量)与价格具有长期互动关系,短期内关系不明显;库存短期内具有调节价格的作用,而长期内价格变化带动库存变化。国内价格受国际价格左右,我国对镍的定价依然缺乏话语权;镍价格受主要因素影响的同时,偶然、突发等不确定因素会对镍价格造成短时间冲击;镍价格在2015年下半年还会保持上升态势,在2~3年后,价格趋于合理,2025年左右,中国镍消费将达到顶点,此后,中国需求因素对镍价格的影响将削弱。

Nickel is an important strategic mineral resource and it is therefore necessary to predict the supply and demand of nickel in advance and develop reasonable solutions. On the basis of collecting data about nickel supply and demand,supply security,market change and price trends from the viewpoint of supply and demand,the cointegration relationships between(1)stainless steel production and nickel price,(2)nickel LME stock and LME cash settlement price,and(3)nickel Shanghai Material Trading price and LME cash settlement price were analyzed. We also combined other uncertain factors and the main influencing factors on nickel price. We found that the long-term interactive relationship between demand factors(e.g. stainless steel production)and the nickel price exist,but the short term relationship is not obvious. In the short-term,nickel stock can adjust the nickel price,in the long term nickel stock change was driven by nickel price change. Domestic prices were controlled by the international price;nickel pricing in China still lacks appropriate discourse. Accidents,emergencies and other factors will cause short term impacts on the nickel price. Nickel prices will rise in 2015,but after 2-3 years the price will become reasonable. After peak nickel consumption in 2025 prices will drop.