基于合成指数模型的中国煤炭行业周期波动研究

A composite indicators model of coal industry cycle fluctuation in China

煤炭在中国一次性能源生产和消费中均占主导位置,同时,我国煤炭生产和消费量均居世界第一位。随着中国经济发展进入新常态,煤炭行业发展趋势及其周期性波动特征成为关注的热点。合成指数分析法是当前最为广泛地分析行业和产业线性波动的研究方法。本文采用合成指数模型,结合交叉相关系数分析法,构建我国煤炭行业周期波动的模型,研究结果表明,2003-2014年我国煤炭行业经历了3次较为明显的上升期和下降期,2014年延续2011年末以来市场低位徘徊的趋势。波动周期呈现不对称性和陡升缓降,两次出现右边长尾;煤炭行业周期波动与宏观经济波动关系紧密。从煤炭行业周期波动特征的研究来看,全面深化改革,加快结构调整,把握发展机遇,拓展对外合作,运用好金融因素,防范过渡金融化风险,主动适应经济发展新常态成为我国煤炭行业健康有序发展的重要任务。

The production and consumption of coal is the primary energy source in China. Coal is the key fuel in China's energy mix and since economic growth and energy use are highly correlated,coal industry prospects remain important. With‘new normal'economic development in China,there has been a focus on the development of the coal industry and cycle fluctuation. Here,based on the composite indicators model of Coal Industry Cycle Fluctuation in China we found that during 2003-2014 the coal industry monitoring indicator had three increases. The first rise was January to August in 2003;the second rise was July 2008 to December 2009;and the third rise was April 2012 to September 2013. In 2014,the coal industry monitoring indicator was still operating far below capacity in the past two years. Cycle fluctuations show asymmetry,steep rises and slow drops, and two long tail sharp increases. Fluctuation between the coal industry and macro-economics in China's new normal state is similarity and lag. This paper analyses how the main indicators impact on coal industry in China,including coal mining investment in fixed assets,electric energy production,coal company stock indicators,coal import volume,coal enterprises profitable,M2 and coal price. We suggest that the coal industry should actively adapt to the new normal economic development of China's coal industry,speed up structural adjustment,expand foreign cooperation,make good financial factors,and prevent transition financial risk.