中国在哈萨克斯坦矿业投资区域优选评价研究

A structural study of the appraisal index system for optimal mining regions in Kazakhstan

哈萨克斯坦与我国接壤,位于丝绸之路经济带核心区,是全球最大的内陆国,是中亚地区矿产资源最为丰富的国家,地缘战略地位突出,已成为中国企业投资的最为重要的海外国家之一。哈萨克斯坦国土面积广大,地区间资源禀赋与投资环境差异较大,优选重点矿业开发区域对指导中国企业到哈萨克斯坦投资意义重大。本文统筹国家战略需求与企业需求,建立了哈萨克斯坦矿业投资评价指标体系,涵盖资源禀赋、投资环境、资源市场需求以及国家战略需求4个二级指标和资源潜力、竞争环境和社会环境等12个三级指标。采用层次分析法(AHP)对哈萨克斯坦的14个州进行了矿业投资区域优选评价,按照得分高低,并结合实际情况,将14个州分为矿业投资优选区、矿业投资鼓励区和一般矿业投资区域三类。矿业投资优选区包括阿特劳州、卡拉干达州、东哈萨克斯坦州、曼格斯套州和南哈萨克斯坦州,矿业投资鼓励区包括西哈萨克斯坦州、阿拉木图州、巴甫洛达尔州、北哈萨克斯坦州和科斯塔奈州,以及一般矿业投资区包括阿克托别州、江布尔州、阿克莫拉州和克孜勒州奥尔达州。

Kazakhstan borders on Xinjiang province in China,is located in the Silk Road Economic Belt and is the largest landlocked country. Kazakhstan is very important to China and possesses rich mineral resources that a lot of Chinese enterprises have plans to invest in. Owing to various resource endowments and the investment environment over such a large area,it is vital to learn which region is best suited to enterprise investment. Here,our goal was to determine which region is worth investment by combining China's strategy under conditions of different regions with different resource endowment. We constructed an appraisal index system of mining regional investment in Kazakhstan in terms of strategy and enterprise mining investment,using the environment,resource endowment,market demand and geostrategy as four aspects. These four aspects can be broken down into 12 indices:infrastructure,natural environment,competitive environment,social environment,degree of geological work,quantity of resources,potential resources,Kazakhstan demand,Chinese demand,other demand,Channel strategy and the economic strategy of Xinjiang. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to calculate each indices' weight and obtain a final score for each state. According to final scores we divided 14 states into three categories(optimal mining investment regions,encouragement mining investment regions and general mining investment regions)to guide Chinese enterprise investment in Kazakhstan. We found that the optimal mining investment regions are Atyrau,Karaganda,East Kazakhstan,Mangystau and South Kazakhstan. Encouragement mining investment regions includes East Kazakhstan,Almaty,Pavlodar,North Kazakhstan and Qostanay. General mining investment regions include Aktobe,Jambyl,Akmola and Kyzylorda.