地方政府商住用地供给决策模式研究——基于城市间博弈视角的分析

Supply decision models of commercial and residential land for city governments in China

为全面理解我国地方政府商住用地供给决策模式,提高商住用地供给调控的针对性,本文将地方政府间的博弈关系纳入考察范畴,以山东半岛区域为研究对象,利用相关城市商住用地价格和供给量数据,求取该区域商住用地供给函数。在此基础上,基于博弈论方法,构建关系矩阵反映该区域商住用地供给决策模式。研究结果表明:1在商住用地供给存在替代关系的城市间,引入邻接矩阵表示供给的关注关系,能够描述地方政府商住用地的供给决策模式,该分析方法具有普适性;2在山东半岛区域内,地方政府商住用地供给决策模式高度类似于"领导者-跟随者"模式;3区域商住用地市场领导者与跟随者的供给量反向变动。调控区域商住用地供给,应注意地方政府商住用地供给的互动作用。对于城市间商住用地供给决策模式为"领导者-跟随者"模式的区域,通过对处于"领导者"地位的地方政府商住用地供给的调控,可撬动其他城市供给量的反向变动,从而达到事半功倍的效果。

In order to fully understand the supply decision mode of commercial and residential land for city governments and improve the pertinence of commercial and residential land supply regulation we take the competitive relationship among local governments across the Shandong Peninsula as our case study. Based on game theory we build a relationship matrix to reflect regional commercial and residential land supply decision modes for the Peninsula. We found that among cities in which substitutes exist for commercial and residential land supply,the introduction of the adjacency matrix expresses the relationship of the focus on supply. Due to its universal applicability,the adjacency matrix is a good method to describe the supply decision mode of commercial and residential land by local governments. Across the Shandong Peninsula,the commercial and residential land supply decision mode under local government is very similar to the leader-follower mode. There are reverse changes in the supply of commercial and residential land between leaders and followers of regional markets. The regulation of regional supply for commercial and residential land should pay attention to the interaction of supply under local governments. For cities where the commercial and residential land supply decision mode is leader-follower,it can be adjusted by regulating supply in the position as leader to reverse changes in the supply quantity of other cities and achieve twice the result with half the effort.