区域资源承载力与资源负荷的动态测度方法初探——基于辽宁省水资源评价的实证

Dynamic measurement of regional resource carrying capacity and resource load for water resources in Liaoning

中国正处在快速城市化、新型工业化与农业现代化互动发展时期,文章着眼于这一背景,从区域人口、资源、环境与经济、社会协调发展的视角,提出了基于人口、土地、经济规模的资源承载力阈值、资源负荷、资源强度概念及其表征方法;结合分岔理论和突变理论,引入突变级数法进行资源承载力的多目标综合评价,以2011-2013年辽宁省水资源系统综合评价为例进行实证分析,结果表明:2011年辽宁省14个行政单元中,人口、土地、经济规模超过水资源承载力阈值的城市分别为8个、8个、4个,水资源强度高于全省平均值的城市分别为6个、6个、10个;与2011年相比,2013年辽西北的朝阳、阜新及铁岭等3个城市的水资源应急响应级别提高,辽东南的大连、丹东、盘锦及营口等4地水资源系统负荷减轻,辽宁省水资源危急态势趋缓。通过对比分析,认为评价结果基本符合近年来辽宁省水资源开发与利用的整体状况,评价过程相对简便、评价结果更加直观,因此便于推广应用,为不同时空尺度内的资源优化配置及区域可持续发展的定量研究提供了新的思路和评价方法。

China is in an interactive development period of rapid urbanization,new industrialization and agricultural modernization. Coordinated development between regional populations,resources,environment,economy and society is needed. Here,the concepts and characterization methods of threshold values of resource carrying capacity,resource load and resource intensity are proposed based on population,land and economic scales. Combined with Bifurcation Theory and Catastrophe Theory,the Catastrophe Progression Method is introduced to carry out a multiobjective comprehensive evaluation of resource carrying capacity. The evaluation of water resource carrying capacity in 14 cities of Liaoning from 2011 to 2013 was taken as an example for empirical analysis. We found that in 2011 there were respectively 8,8 and 4 cities with larger population,land and economic scales than their threshold values of water resource carrying capacity;and there were 6,6 and 10 cities with higher water resources intensity than the provincial average for Liaoning. Compared to 2011,water resources emergency response grades in northwestern Liaoning,including Chaoyang,Fuxin and Tieling,were increased in 2013 while water resource system loads in southeastern Liaoning including Dalian,Dandong,Panjin and Yingkou were alleviated and the critical situation of water resources in the whole province mitigated. The evaluation results conform to the whole situation for water resource development and utilization in Liaoning in recent years. The evaluation process is simple and the results are visualized,reliable and easy to use widely. Therefore,this method provides a new way of thinking for the quantitative study of regional resource optimized allocation and sustainable development and utilization.