省域碳排放强度的收敛性与动态演进

Convergence of provincial carbon emission intensity and dynamic processes

鉴于传统收敛模型的局限性,基于PS收敛模型对中国30个省市1986-2010年碳排放强度的收敛特征进行分析。研究结果表明,中国30个省市的碳排放强度整体上不存在收敛,但内部存在4个收敛类型(即类型A-类型D)和1个离散类型(即类型E),其中类型A、类型B和类型E的相对转移路径趋于上扬,其所包含省份的整体碳排放强度与全国总体平均水平的碳排放强度间的差距趋于扩大,资源利用效率趋于下降,是拉动我国碳排放强度增加的主要类型;类型C和类型D的相对转移路径在样本研究期内呈现出平稳的下降趋势,其所包含省份的整体碳排放强度与全国总体平均水平的碳排放强度间的差距趋于缩小,资源利用效率趋于提高,是降低我国碳排放强度的主要类型。进一步的核密度分析发现,整体上看,我国碳排放强度逐年趋于下降,且省域间的碳排放差异也呈现出缩小态势。

Based on drawbacks of the traditional Convergence model,we used the PS convergence model to study the convergence of carbon intensity from 1986 to 2010 for China's 30 provinces.The result shows that there is no convergence among the 30 provinces,and different convergence classes. The classes can be divided into four convergence classes(class A to D)and a discrete class(class E). The relative transition path of classes A,B and C is increasing:the carbon intensity of these classes is increasing relative to the average carbon intensity of the full sample from year to year,and the efficiency of resource use is declining. These are core classes with increasing carbon emission intensity. The relative transition path of classes C and D is decreasing:the carbon intensity of these classes is decreasing relative to the average carbon intensity of the full sample from year to year,and the efficiency of resource use is declining. These classes provide a significant clue for decreasing carbon emission intensity. Making use of the kernel density estimation,we found that the overall divergence of carbon emission intensity among the 30 provinces has decreased. Therefore,the central government should take full account of differences in carbon emissions between regions and the balance between efficiency and equity,and construct regional carbon emissions balancing mechanisms,reduce the total cost of emissions,promote regional balance and coordinate development among energy,economic and environmental sectors.