外商直接投资对中国碳排放的门槛效应研究

Threshold effects of foreign direct investment on China's carbon emissions

在世界经济一体化水平不断提升和各国对"温室效应"日益关注的背景下,考察外商直接投资(FDI)对碳排放的影响具有重要意义。基于1995-2011年中国29个省区的数据,利用非动态门槛面板估计方法,本文从地区人均收入、人力资本、研发投入和环境规制等四个角度,实证检验了FDI对中国碳排放的门槛效应。研究表明,FDI对中国碳排放存在比较显著的门槛效应。当地区人均收入过高、过低,或人力资本、研发投入、环境规制水平较高时,FDI显著抑制了碳排放增加;而当人均收入中等,或人力资本、研发投入、环境规制水平较低时,FDI的消减作用则很不明显,甚至会增加碳排放。由研究期内相关因素的变动趋势可知,通过收入门槛效应,FDI增加了中国碳排放,但此种影响逐渐减弱;通过人力资本、研发投入门槛效应,FDI降低了中国碳排放,且此种影响正在增强;通过环境规制门槛效应,FDI也增加了中国碳排放,且此种负面影响尚无明显减弱。本研究结论对中国"对外开放"和"节能减排"政策的制定,地区经济发展和环境政策的协调,"开放型经济"和"低碳经济"的和谐发展,均具有重要的现实意义。

Under a context of increasing economic integration and growing concern over the greenhouse effect,examining the impact of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)on carbon emissions is important. Based on data from 29 provinces from 1995-2011 and the panel threshold estimation method,I analyzed the threshold effects of FDI on China's carbon emissions from the perspectives of regional per capita income,human capital,R & D investment and environmental regulations.Results show that the threshold effects of FDI on China's carbon emission are significant. When per capita income in investment area is too high and too low,or human capital,R & D investment,environmental regulation is higher,FDI inhibits local carbon emissions. When per capital income in investment area is in the middle stage,or human capital,R & D investment,environmental regulation strength in investment area is lower,FDI does not reduce local carbon emissions and increases local carbon emissions. Research on the trend of related factors shows that,by per capita income threshold effect,FDI increases China's carbon emissions now,but this influence is waning in the long term. For human capital and R & D investment threshold effects,FDI reduces carbon emissions in China now and this positive impact gradually increases in the long run. For the environmental regulation threshold effect,FDI as a whole has increased China's carbon emission in the past 10 years and this influence does not change in the long term. The patterns revealed here have policy development implications for China's ‘opening up',energy conservation and emission reduction,coordination between regional economic development policy and environmental policy,and harmonious development between the open economy and low carbon economy.