基于碳夹点分析的中国能源结构优化研究

Optimization of China's energy structure based on carbon pinch analysis

本文研究了碳排放目标下我国能源结构的优化问题。论文运用碳夹点方法识别能源消费瓶颈,并通过能源替代确定满足碳排放约束的清洁能源量,最后以我国政府承诺的2020年碳减排目标为例,基于对2020年我国能源消费及碳排放量的预测,对我国整体能源结构优化进行实证分析。研究结果表明,2020年我国预测碳排放量高于碳减排目标,在清洁能源达到2 466.8万TJ^3 496.2万TJ时,能够实现2020年比2005年单位GDP减排40%~45%的碳排放目标。研究发现,碳排放约束下能源结构优化必须在一定的激励和约束措施下才能实现,且关键在于降低高碳能源的比重。能源结构的优化需依据能源的碳排放因子,按照由低向高的顺序通过清洁能源对高碳能源的替代来实现。清洁能源消费比重的提升是实现2020年碳减排目标的关键。中国经济步入以中高速增长为标志的"新常态"将有利于2020年能源消费总量的控制以及清洁能源消费比重的增加。

Current energy structure result in serious climate issues. Here we analyzed the optimization of China's energy structure. Through a literature review we found that carbon pinch analysis delivers a good solution for the identification and solution of bottleneck energy uses with the result of low energy loss. We identified the energy bottleneck with carbon pinch analysis and determined the minimum quantities of zero- carbon energy meeting the conditions of carbon emission constraints through energy substitution. We then empirically analyzed national and regional energy optimization in 2020 under the Chinese government's commitments with reductions of 40%~45% per GDP compared to 2005. We found that the predicated CO2 emissions in 2020 are higher than the emission reduction targets,but it is possible to achieve the emission reduction targets nationally by providing zero-carbon energy of 2 466.8×104TJ-3 496.2×104TJ,that is 16.91%~23.96% of total energy. The optimization of energy structure should be realized:except for some restrictions and incentives for its high proportion of zero-carbon energy requirements,the key points are the reduction of high-carbon emission energy. The optimization of energy structure should be realized by substituting high-carbon energy with zero-carbon energy from small to large order and in accordance with energy carbon emission factors. Improvement of the zero- energy consumption ratio is the key to achieving the goals for 2020. As China enters the New Normal with characteristics of moderate economic growth,optimization of energy structure,improvement of energy quality and advantageous system environment,total energy consumption reduction and renewable energy consumption increases are promising.