家庭规模对中国能源消费和碳排放的影响研究

Effects of household size on energy consumption and carbon emissions

家庭规模是影响家庭消费的核心要素之一,已有文献仅从消费量角度考察家庭规模对能源消费和碳排放的影响,忽视了家庭规模对能源消费结构和碳排放结构的影响。本文的逻辑是,家庭规模经济既影响消费水平又影响消费结构,不同消费品的碳排放系数不同,因此家庭规模与消费水平、消费结构和碳排放之间具有密切关系。利用2010年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,本文研究发现:1不同消费品存在程度不同的规模经济效应;家庭规模越大,人均消费越低;规模经济对家庭消费的影响具有单调的边际效用递减特征,规模介于2~4人家庭的消费量受规模经济影响最显著;2家庭规模对各类消费品在家庭消费中所占比例的影响不同,因此不同规模家庭具有不同消费结构,从而具有不同的碳排放水平和结构;3家庭规模经济对碳排放的影响具有非单调的边际效用递减特征。基于上述结果,在家庭规模小型化的人口变化趋势下,对于能源消费和碳排放的认识需要充分考量家庭规模因素,实施基于不同规模家庭的差异化消费政策,有利于引导能源合理消费,促进节能减排目标的实现。

Household is the key factor for understanding the relationship between energy consumption and greenhouse emission. As one of the most important demographic factors,household size,not only affecting the consumption level, but also the consumption structure, plays a critical role in the household consumption. Due to the difference of carbon intensity between different goods, there are close relationships between household size, consumption level and structure, and carbon emission level and structure. Despite that importance, most of the professional and scholarly literature on greenhouse emission has neglected the effect of household size on the energy consumption structure and carbon emission. Based on data from China Family Panel Studies 2010, the article estimates economies of scale of different commodities and the consumption curve, the corresponding carbon emission curve with respect to household size, and reveals household size's influence on the consumption structure and carbon emissions. The conclusion is that,firstly, all goods have economy of scale on household size, but there is a strong negative correlation between capita consumption and household size. The marginal utility of scale of economies is monotone decreasing,and the households with 2 to 4 members are most significantly affected by the economy of scale. Secondly, household size has different effects on the proportion of different goods, so the households with different size have different consumption structure, thereby different carbon levels and structures. Thirdly, the impact of economy of scale on carbon emission is non monotone decreasing. Based on above analysis, the article argues that building up ecological civilization and dealing with climate change require paying more attention to household characters. Especially,it is necessary to take full consideration of the change on household size when forecasting the trends of energy consumption and carbon emission.Meanwhile, different consumption policies depending on size and structure of household will help to guide rational consumption of energy and reduce the energy-saving emission.