基于灰色模型预测的矿区生态系统服务价值变化研究——以山西省平朔露天矿区为例

Changes in Pingshuo opencast mining area ecosystem service values based on grey prediction modeling

露天煤矿开采对区域景观格局、生态过程、生物生境等造成巨大影响,导致矿区生态系统服务功能和价值发生变化。该文以山西省平朔露天煤矿1987年、1996年、2005年和2010年遥感影像数据及矿区未来复垦计划和产业转型规划的相关资料为基础,利用生态系统服务经济价值评估方法,分析了1987-2010年煤炭开采对矿区生态系统的食物生产等生产服务价值和土壤形成与保护、水源涵养、生物多样性维持、气候调节等支持与调节服务价值的影响,并使用在缓冲算子调节下改进的灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测2010-2020年矿区在产业转型背景下生态系统服务价值的变化。结果表明:受煤矿开采的影响,平朔矿区原地貌土地被大量损毁,导致了矿区生态系统结构受损和生态系统服务价值下降。1987-2010年,平朔矿区5项生态系统服务总价值由9 206.15万元下降到6 688.14万元,年均下降1.19%,其中1987-1996年、1996-2005年、2005-2010年3个阶段生态系统服务价值下降速率分别为15.22%、9.22%、5.61%;预测2010-2020年间,受土地复垦和产业转型升级的影响,矿区生态系统服务价值下降速度趋于缓慢,至2020年矿区5项生态系统服务总价值为6 429.81万元,年均下降0.39%。在露天煤矿开采的不同阶段,应注重通过保护性的矿产开采,科学的地貌重塑、土壤重构、植被重建等技术及生态产业的大力发展来调控矿区生态系统组成、结构和功能,从而提高矿区各项生态系统服务价值。

Open coal mining causes huge impacts on regional landscape patterns,ecological process and biological habitat. It results in changes in mining area ecosystem service functions and values. Here,we used ecosystem service value evaluation methods to analyze the production service values of food production and the support and regulation service values of soil formation and protection,water conservation,biodiversity maintenance,and climate regulation of the Shanxi Pingshuo mining area from 1987 to 2010 based on 1987,1996,2005 and 2010 remote sensing image and future reclamation planning and industry transformation planning. We used a modified gray system GM(1,1)model regulated by buffer operator to predict the changes in mining area ecosystem service values under a background of industry transformation. We found that the landform of Pingshuo mining area has been damaged heavily by coal mining,and led to ecological system structural damage and ecosystem service value decline. Pingshuo mining area's five ecosystem service values decreased from 92 061 500 CNY to 66 881 400 CNY in 1987-2010;falling by an annual average of 1.19%. The decreased speed of ecosystem service values was15.22%,9.22%,5.61% for 1987-1996,1996-2005 and 2005-2010. In 2020 under land reclamation and transformation of industrial deepening,the total value of the five ecosystem services will fall to64 298 100 CNY;falling by an annual average of 0.39% from 2010-2020. Therefore,we suggest that the Pingshuo mining area should control mining area ecosystem composition,structure and function through scientific landform remolding,soil reconstruction,vegetation reconstruction and vigorous development of the ecological industry to improve mining area ecosystem service values.