BJ-RUC产品在小区供暖供回水温度预报的应用研究

Application Research on Community Supply-Return Water Temperature with BJ-RUC Products

利用气象部门快速更新的BJ-RUC(Beijing-Rapid UpdateCycle)数值预报系统获得的24 h逐时的室外温度预报资料,应用能量平衡原理,建立建筑物热损失方程和供热量方程,从而推导出室外温度和室内温度、供水、回水温度的预报模型。用此模型对2010年3月1—15日期间的供、回水温度进行预报模拟,与北京市海园物业供热单位实况值进行对比分析。检验结果表明,该模型模拟的室内温度与设计要求的室内温度(20℃)之间的均方根误差为0.25℃,海园物业室内温度监测点数值与20℃之间的均方根误差为1.53℃。模拟的供、回水温度与海园物业监测点供水温度的均方根误差分别为3.69℃和3.80℃。

Based on the 24 h hourly outdoor temperature forecasts from Beijing Rapid Update Cycle(BJRUC)NWP and observed indoor temperature from Beijing Haiyuan Community during 1 —15 March 2010,the relations between heat supply and loss,indoor and outdoor temperature,supply and return water temperature of heating system for buildings are established by using the principle of the energy equilibrium.A numerical simulation model of supply and return water temperature is deduced.The simulation experiment of hourly temperature forecast is carried out.Then the simulated forecast is compared to the observed temperature in Beijing Haiyuan Community.The results show that the mean square root error between simulated indoor temperature and required temperature(20℃) is 0.25℃.Comparably,the actual error of operation in Beijing Haiyuan Community is 1.53℃.The root mean square errors between simulated and observed supply water temperature and return water temperature are 3.69℃ and 3.80℃ respectively.Which is much less than the actual operation error 1.53℃ in Beijing Haiyuan Community.