基于灰色系统理论的煤层底板破坏深度预测模型

Prediction Model of Destroyed Floor Depth Based on Grey System Theory

为了有效预测煤层底板破坏深度与控制底板突水灾害,提出了一种基于灰色系统理论的煤层底板破坏深度预测模型。选取采深、煤层倾角、采厚、工作面斜长、断层情况作为底板破坏深度的主要影响因素,利用灰色关联分析确定各因素权重。结合灰色系统理论与工作面现场数据,确定预测底板破坏深度的GM(0,N)模型参数。通过预测工程实例,分析了该模型预测底板破坏深度的可行性与适用条件。研究结果表明,GM(0,N)模型的平均相对误差相比经验公式降低了28.83%,在满足其适用条件时其预测的平均相对误差为14.14%。该模型相比传统经验公式更接近工程实际,在其适用条件下可为现场底板破坏深度预测提供参考。

To forecast destroyed floor depth and control water-inrush disaster of bottom strata effectively,the GM(0,N)model on forecasting this depth was built,based on the grey system theory. The main factors included mining depth,angle of coal seam,mining thickness,workface inclined length,and fault,which influenced the depth.By means of grey correlation analysis,the weight of each factor was determined.Combined with grey system theory and the data from working face,parameters of the GM(0,N)model were determined.By predicting project examples,rationality of this GM(0,N)model and its applicable conditions were validated.The results showed that,compared to average fractional error from the empirical formula,the error from the GM(0,N)model was decreased by 28.83%.With the satisfactory of its applicable conditions,the average fractional error from the GM(0,N)model was 14.14%.This model,which was closer to engineering practice than empirical formula,can provide reference for forecasting destroyed floor depth in suitable conditions.