北京城市发展与水资源利用关系分析

The conjunction between urban development and the utilization of water resources in Beijing

水短缺严重制约城市经济社会的快速发展。本文基于2000-2012年间北京城市发展以及水资源利用等数据,采用灰色关联法分析工业、农业、生活和环境用水与城市化率、产业结构、经济发展水平、居民生活水平等城市发展指标之间的关联程度,探讨水资源利用结构随着城市发展的变化情况。结果表明:1产业结构调整对水资源利用总量变化的影响最大,关联度r2为0.83;城市化率和居民生活水平次之;经济发展水平最弱,关联度r3为0.62;2生活用水受到城市发展水平的影响最大,关联度r3为0.92;其次为农业和工业用水;环境用水量受城市发展水平影响最小,关联r4度为0.68;3城市发展过程中,生活用水的增加和人均GDP等经济因素以及人口规模相关,需采取相应措施,控制生活用水的持续增加,维持北京市用水总量的稳定。

With rapid development in Beijing,water resource shortages have become more and more serious,and other problems in the utilization of water resources are also hindering the rapid development of the economy and society. Basing on Grey Relational Analysis we analyzed correlations between industry,agriculture,domestic and environmental water and a city's development indicators(urbanization rate,industrial structure,economic development level and residents' living standards). This analysis was based on data from 2000 to 2012 for Beijing. We found that among urbanization rate,industrial structure,economic development level and residents' living standards,adjustment of industrial structure influences variation in water utilization mostly in the process of urban development(correlation coefficient,0.83);urbanization and residents' living standard are less,and the level of economic development has the weakest correlation coefficient at 0.62. There is a strong correlation between the utilization of water and urban development in Beijing. Among the water use of industry,agriculture,domestic and environment,domestic water has the greatest impact on urban development and the correlation coefficient is0.92;while environment water is the minimum and the correlation coefficient is 0.68. It can be seen that the structure of water resource utilization has changed in the past ten years during the process of urbanization of Beijing. Agricultural and industry water is reducing while domestic water continues to increase,and family and public life water accounts for the most part,with the proportion of 45% and 55%. The analysis of tertiary industries' water use structure is important to potential water savings.